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 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 26. August 2008 23:45 
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|23. December 2024| 03:11
As expected. I know something about tennis afterall. ;)
I agree with you who say that she should play as much as possible.


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Career Grand Slam
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 00:35 
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|22. December 2024| 20:11
As expected. I know something about tennis afterall. ;)
I agree with you who say that she should play as much as possible.

Agreed, she needs to play to improve.
I wouldn't be all that proud of that prediction. The reality was that there was no evidence at all to suggest that ALG had anything close to a 50/50 chance of winning this match. Daniela faced another player who was dominant over inferior competition at a grand slam last year, Pavlyuchenkova, and killed her 6-0, 6-1. ALG hadn't beat anyone of any stature in over two years. If I predict that Svetlana Kuznetsova will win the Open, I'm a fool. If she happens to win which she certainly could, I'm still a fool because there's no evidence that she's the best player now. I would have just gotten lucky. Just like you did. Just as a lawyer needs concrete, indisputable evidence to prove his case in a court of law, the same holds true with sports predictions. There was and is no evidence to suggest that a player going 30-4 on the ITF circuit is better than the 30th best WTA player (which is a very modest assessment of Daniela's current ability). If there were, upsets like this would be common. They are not. Las Vegas had Daniela as nearly a 3-1 favorite. No one (and I mean no one) is more than a whisker smarter than the wisdom of the crowds. If they were, they'd be multi-millionaires. The best chances a reasonable person could have given ALG to win this match were 33%. More reasonably would be 25%.

If you think that ALG has recaptured her 2006 form (which was still not as good as a healthy Daniela, anyway), you need months of quality wins before you can confidently make that assessment. To me, ALG is likely no different than where Tanasugarn was a couple of months ago. A veteran putting together a few strong matches which is not likely sustainable.

I still think you know a lot about tennis, though and appreciate when you post.


Last edited by pmrd44 on 27. August 2008 01:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Career Grand Slam
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 01:00 
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|22. December 2024| 20:11
"I really didn't get the chance to get into the match," world number 12 Hantuchova told reporters. "She was serving incredibly well and her first serves were around 125 (mph) which gave me no chance. I felt I was always under pressure."
"I don't feel 100 percent fit," she added. "The foot feels much better but I lost the feeling of playing and that takes time to get back."

It's sort of trivial, but her serves topped out at 120 and were frequently more around 110-115 (and I think that gun is hot, AChak was around 105 yesterday which is high for her). It seems Daniela understandably has to rediscover her mechanics after not playing at all for weeks. That was what was really dangerous about that injury, that she had to shut everything down for so long. Repeatable mechanics are a big part of successful tennis (true for a lot of sports) and Daniela's are probably way out of sorts. That helps explain my observation that she's not hitting anywhere near as hard. But why hasn't she put it together by now? She's has several tournaments and she really hasn't improved at all. She looked just as good (or bad) against Kleybanova when I saw them play at Wimbledon. That gets back to my earlier concern, how quickly can Daniela solve this problem.

Groenefeld added: "I was very happy with my first serves because I knew I had to play aggressively against her."
Anna was very lucky/good in that regard as she gambled a lot and hit a lot of lines. It was similar to how Serena played last year at Wimbledon. It's smart in that her movement is still awful, so she can only win through very aggressive ball-striking. When she starts missing those lines, she'll lose. (Lowly Elena Bovina just beat her at an ITF event).


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Tier II Title Holder
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 07:57 
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|23. December 2024| 03:11
"The foot feels much better but I lost the feeling of playing and that takes time to get back."

so how much more time do you need? I'll give you one year, is that enough?

I mean, really, you cannot keep making excuses like that when you are world number 12 and has come back to play for more than 2 months.


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 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 09:43 
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|23. December 2024| 03:11
Phil, I think we have already discussed the match up issue on tennisforum. Even then I told you that Daniela generally struggles against big servers and heavy hitters. That's how it is, her record against tall power players is dismal - she can't dictate the points, more often finds herself in defense, which is where she is vulnerable the most. That's why she managed to have a decent scoreline against Cornet, who is in no way a power player, cause she could dictate the points and play at her own tempo. That's why she has decent H2H's against Henin, Mauresmo and Kuznetsova (Kuzzy is a power player, but her serve and return is not as dangerous for Daniela, because she isn't tall enough to serve as big and take the ball on the rise when returning) while her H2H against Davenport, the WS or Sharapova is bad. If Daniela was in a good form I would give her a fair chance to beat a player like Groenefeld, because the German isn't a top power player. But knowing Daniela's current form it was quite clear that she would lose this match. I only regret that I didn't bet on it. That would have been some easy earned money.
You simply can't explain everything in tennis via stats, it doesn't work like that. Tennis is mainly about two styles of play and how they match against each other, regarding current form, surface they play on and other factors. I wasn't lucky at all with that prediction.


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Tier IV Title Holder
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 10:43 
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|23. December 2024| 03:11
When does she play doubles?


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media master
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 11:14 
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|23. December 2024| 03:11
Doubles on Thursday



Fan of Daniela Hantuchova since the Australian Open 2002 Other players: Azarenka,Wozniacki,Henin,Safarova,Benesova




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Golden Slam
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 11:24 
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|23. December 2024| 02:11
I wasnt able to watch the match and by what a friend of mine told me through txts im glad i didnt. But im not too downheartened for reasons ive told you all on a number of occasions. As for the talk of her taking a break, i personally feel that she will not find her form on the practice court but it may be in idea to go down a level and start playing some lower tiered tournaments, simply to get more matches under her belt and start getting that winning feeling again. If that doesnt work and she continues to lose matches it may be worth taking a break and going back to the practice court. Knowing Daniela for years I know she wont drop down a level if a Tier I or II comes calling but i think that that would be the best remedy for her because if she continues playing like this the damage on her confidence could be irrepareable

Scott



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Site Admin
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 11:31 
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The problem is that even if Daniela wanted to play lower tier tournaments she can't because of her gold exempt status.


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Golden Slam
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 11:36 
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The problem is that even if Daniela wanted to play lower tier tournaments she can't because of her gold exempt status.

Ah well there goes that idea, i didnt realise that that prevented her from playing lower tiered tournaments, i just thought it got her wild cards if she needed them lol

Scott



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Site Admin
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 11:40 
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Well, she can play some Tier III or even Tier IV (she's not a top 5 player on the list), but not when there is a Tier I tournament played the same week. However, the number of Tier III's she can play is limited I think. And she certainly can't play any ITF tournaments as some people suggested.


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Tier I Title Holder
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 11:54 
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|23. December 2024| 10:11
what will happen to her ranking then.
i hope bartoli or schnyder won be successful in US open



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Golden Slam
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 12:00 
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Well, she can play some Tier III or even Tier IV (she's not a top 5 player on the list), but not when there is a Tier I tournament played the same week. However, the number of Tier III's she can play is limited I think. And she certainly can't play any ITF tournaments as some people suggested.

ITF Tournaments would be a bit extreme, if she can squeeze in some tier III's and maybe some Tier IV's (can never remember her playing one!?) then maybe she can get her form back

Scott



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media master
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 12:02 
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Well, she can play some Tier III or even Tier IV (she's not a top 5 player on the list), but not when there is a Tier I tournament played the same week. However, the number of Tier III's she can play is limited I think. And she certainly can't play any ITF tournaments as some people suggested.

wich is a stupid idea anyway, she won't get better from playing ITF tournament, not for a player like Daniela
Playing tournaments like Bali or Luxembourg can help her it's Tier III (even though we are still not sure about that last one)



Fan of Daniela Hantuchova since the Australian Open 2002 Other players: Azarenka,Wozniacki,Henin,Safarova,Benesova




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media master
 Post subject: Re: US Open, New York
PostPosted: 27. August 2008 12:03 
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|23. December 2024| 03:11
Well, she can play some Tier III or even Tier IV (she's not a top 5 player on the list), but not when there is a Tier I tournament played the same week. However, the number of Tier III's she can play is limited I think. And she certainly can't play any ITF tournaments as some people suggested.

ITF Tournaments would be a bit extreme, if she can squeeze in some tier III's and maybe some Tier IV's ([b]can never remember her playing one!?) then maybe she can get her form back

Scott[/b]

i think only Auckland 2006-2007 ?



Fan of Daniela Hantuchova since the Australian Open 2002 Other players: Azarenka,Wozniacki,Henin,Safarova,Benesova




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